Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is another development in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his choice to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.