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Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he was the fifth British prime minister to occupy the position over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented exceptional governmental instability. So what term captures what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its sixth prime minister in 24 months – with three in the last ten months?

The latest prime minister, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a political permacrisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for many years – perhaps not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Key background: ever since Macron called an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament separated into three warring blocs – the left, the far right and his own centrist coalition – without any group holding a clear majority.

Simultaneously, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now nearly double the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

In this challenging environment, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In mid-September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu presented his government team – which turned out to be largely unchanged from before – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

To such an extent that the next day, he stepped down. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it mildly, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers openly criticized the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, vowing to reject any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The leader's team confirmed the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So this week – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the nation's opposing groups were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

A Cultural Shift

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and longer-term survival – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the far-right RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in 24 months is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Most expect this to occur soon. Although, by some miracle, the divided parliament musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So does an exit exist? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not escape its predicament until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that cultural shift will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”